With a Lockout Looming: Will There be a NFL Football Season in 2011?

March 3rd, 2011 is "D-Day", so to speak, for the NFL Players Association and the owners to hammer out an acceptable Collective Bargaining Agreement. That is not to say all hope is lost if both sides haven't reached an agreement by then, but it would be an uphill battle to make the 2011 NFL season a reality at that point.

There are 3 major issues that the players and owners disagree on after their most recent discussions Wednesday, February 9, 2011.

1. The owners are asking for changes to be made to the current revenue sharing agreement. Initially reports were that the owners were demanding a $2.4 billion credit be taken from the pool of total revenue each year for costs related to stadium renovation and other business operating costs.

Currently, the credit stands at $1 billion before the revenue is split 60% to the players and 40% to the owners.

The players didn't go for that. They have had the same deal in place since 2006, the owners opted out of that deal, and because the owners aren't releasing all of the financial documents for each franchise, the NFLPA isn't buying the business cost explanation the owners are selling. The owners say they have provided the necessary information to make an informed decision, and that the other paperwork and financial data is irrelevant to the decision at hand.

Wednesday things took a turn for the worst between the sides. The owners walked away from the bargaining table, and canceled a meeting set for today, as well as an owners meeting set for next Tuesday. The major issue? The players proposed a 50/50 split with no credit or requirement for full disclosure of financial  records, and the owners aren't budging on their demands for a credit.

The owners proposed $2.4 billion credit would essentially leave the split between owners and players at close  to 60/40 of total revenue. A huge shift in compensation for the players.

If I'm the NFLPA, I stick to my guns at this point. If the owners won't provide them all financial documents for each team to be reviewed, it is irresponsible to accept a nearly 20% decrease in revenue. This clearly doesn't bode well for an agreement by the March 3rd deadline.

As soon as the deadline passes, the owners are estimated to lose $120 million in revenue due to expiring sponsorship contracts. If this drags out to September, and impacts the 2011 season, the number may climb to $1 billion.

2. The second issue at hand is the owners' proposal to expand the season to 18 games. Truthfully, I would love to see this happen; if I didn't have a conscience, or justified concern for the players safety. The effects that football has on the players involved, especially long term, are serious and need to be taken into consideration. See Chris Henry or William "The Refrigerator" Perry. They are undeniable, and if you want to be shallow and consider it solely from a business standpoint; they are costly for the teams as well. Apparently not costly enough to offset the revenue generated by two additional regular season games.

And still NFLPA DeMaurice Smith hasn't said this would be a dealbreaker. It would just likely require more compensation and less time participating in "mandatory workouts" during the off season.

Sounds reasonable enough from the outside looking in.

3. The third major issue holding up an agreement, but by far the least troublesome, is the implementation of an adjusted rookie wage scale. Both sides agree a new compensation structure needs to be in place for rookies, but there is no agreement to this point on how that should be set up. The NFLPA has conceded a cap on incentives that would reduce the amount rookies are paid with the savings being passed to veterans. The owners have crafted a counter proposal that would require first round picks to sign 5 year contracts at a reduced salary (QBs in the first round have to sign 6 year deals), and picks from rounds 2-7 have to sign 4 year contracts at reduced pay. Ultimately, this is the issue both sides are closest on, and at the same time it can't be resolved completely until a revenue sharing agreement is reached.

It does seem to be the so-called 11th hour for Cinderella. I'm not holding my breath for a 2011 season. It is tough to see a valid reason for the owners' demanding a significantly larger piece of the pie. In the end, it is their responsibility to prove the need for the additional $1.4 billion credit for business operations by providing their individual team's financial information.

If progress isn't made soon, the damage done to the relationship between the fans and the league will likely be long term and severe.

- NLW